Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 3.868947 4.607799 5.429261 6.407373 7.537209 8.798147 10.308642
2025-05-04 2.827690 3.832704 5.077533 6.718568 8.809019 11.365543 14.708951
2025-05-11 2.081131 3.160598 4.628615 6.737350 9.648628 13.480345 18.849336
2025-05-18 1.524310 2.568436 4.112977 6.505791 10.046335 15.004534 22.361484
2025-05-25 1.123160 2.086220 3.626056 6.180712 10.201060 16.145030 25.410869
2025-06-01 0.885183 1.796234 3.357988 6.109929 10.677937 17.751198 29.245150
2025-06-08 0.706964 1.560611 3.122980 6.033797 11.106071 19.293661 33.099346
2025-06-15 0.623672 1.479897 3.136474 6.370035 12.235212 22.029491 39.045303
2025-06-22 0.521977 1.335013 3.000289 6.407916 12.841885 23.953385 43.832924
2025-06-29 0.436401 1.201594 2.858240 6.405388 13.362799 25.764115 48.567288
2025-07-06 0.365166 1.081401 2.718296 6.379651 13.826586 27.502672 53.303869
2025-07-13 0.345578 1.082736 2.838802 6.898974 15.385309 31.320734 61.961376
2025-07-20 0.304675 1.020540 2.810979 7.113031 16.391775 34.264024 69.379761
2025-07-27 0.272439 0.973698 2.811587 7.392141 17.568061 37.639978 77.877901
2025-08-03 0.230755 0.886571 2.696374 7.390565 18.157706 39.944625 84.566736
2025-08-10 0.185478 0.772464 2.487058 7.131743 18.158768 41.088549 89.133026
2025-08-17 0.145498 0.660148 2.255704 6.776642 17.895259 41.664822 92.626305
2025-08-24 0.121551 0.595103 2.141960 6.698976 18.250667 43.535224 98.808925
2025-08-31 0.101510 0.536597 2.033611 6.616100 18.580282 45.372464 105.048849
2025-09-07 0.094840 0.530273 2.085905 6.980497 20.030702 49.730647 116.761619
2025-09-14 0.082082 0.492216 2.027089 7.021509 20.681974 52.383388 125.075743
2025-09-21 0.070379 0.453607 1.957231 7.018754 21.220789 54.825154 133.101509
2025-09-28 0.060019 0.416426 1.883177 6.990856 21.690025 57.143040 141.009589